Outlook and Objectives
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts, the global economy is overcoming last year’s downturn but will not yet see any significant recovery. In its “World Economic Outlook” (April 2013), the IMF expects global economic output to increase by 3.3 percent this year, down from 3.5 percent in January 2013. For 2014, the experts are forecasting economic growth of 4.0 percent. According to them, the emerging and developing markets and North America will benefit from an upturn, while the eurozone will remain in recession in 2013. The IMF is anticipating a growth rate of 0.6 percent for Germany, which should rise to 1.5 percent in the coming year.
The German Engineering Federation (VDMA) confirmed its forecast of 2 percent growth for the current year in April 2013. Although order intake in the past few months has been sluggish, there are signs of an upturn in business activity. The VDMA is hoping for a strong second half of the year.
GEA Group business
Assuming that there is no downturn in global economic growth, we are reiterating our previous business outlook for 2013 and continue to expect moderate revenue growth for GEA in the current fiscal year. With respect to our cash flow drivers, i.e., the net amount of EBITDA, the change in working capital, and capital expenditure, we are aiming for a ratio to revenue of at least 8.0 percent in 2013, after 6.4 percent in the previous year. In terms of price quality, we expect the market environment to remain unchanged as against 2012. On this basis, we are aiming for an earnings target (EBITDA) of around EUR 700 million (previous year: approximately EUR 600 million). We are not anticipating any major one-time expenses in 2013; this also applies to discontinued operations.
Düsseldorf, May 8, 2013
GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft
The Executive Board